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Dustin's Deep Drives (4/27/23)
04/27/2023

Pitching. Pitching. And more pitching. 

It’s a beautiful thing when you plan out a great schedule on paper (or in this case, Google sheets) based on pitching matchups, dodge nearby storms and see big-time arms perform at a high level. Believe it or not, it’s rare for this sort of baseball synergy and you’d be surprised how much time is spent adjusting our schedules on the fly to account for weather, pitching changes, district races, etc. 

Speaking of races, professional scouts likely raced to Magnolia West recently once they heard about James Ellwanger’s performance against Lake Creek. We were there. Let’s begin this edition of Dustin’s Deep Drives with the performance that left everyone in awe and created quite the buzz around Texas:

James Ellwanger… 

The stars aligned and two of the state’s best teams delivered one of the best pitching matchups scouts could hope for - Lake Creek’s Weston Moss and Magnolia West’s Ellwanger. Typically, a pitcher in Texas makes a huge jump his senior season. Boerne’s Cole Phillips and Llano’s Justin Lange are two examples of hard-throwing right-handed pitchers who blew up and ended up being top MLB Draft picks. Ellwanger could be next. 

When I arrived at Magnolia West, I had tempered excitement. I heard about Ellwanger throwing 95 or 97 MPH, depending on who you talk to, and making major strides in his few starts since dominating on the hardwood as a high-motor, athletic, undersized five that could throw down dunks, grab rebounds and block shots. And I say “tempered” because if I had a dollar for every text about a guy throwing 95 MPH only to be 88-91 MPH when I show up, I’d be driving to these games in a Porsche. 

Plus, Ellwanger is a player I saw for years in the summer and typically it was always the same thing - 88-92 MPH, inconsistent breaking ball that flashed occasionally, control and command that would come-and-go and no real third pitch. But the ingredients were always there for a huge jump and good, 6-5 athletes with arm strength and arm speed are good bets to make a jump. Well, the jump happened. Heck, he went from jumping over puddles to leaping over skyscrapers this night. 



Ellwanger produced one of the best pitching performances I’ve seen: 7.0 IP, 1ER, 2H, 3BB, 14K. His final pitch of the game was 96 MPH after touching 98 MPH in the first inning. Once he found his timing around the third inning, Ellwanger carried 95-96 MPH the rest of the way and began to throw two distinct breaking balls - a curve (76-80 MPH) and slider (83-88 MPH). On this night, I saw the slider as the better breaking ball with true shape and better feel for executing to the glove side against right-handed hitters. But talk to scouts and they’ve seen times when the curveball is better, and there was some present feel for spinning the pitch that was a short, tight breaker with power characteristics when Ellwanger was able to keep it from coming out the side and backing up on him; at times, the pitch had more depth and break with lower velocity and other times it was a harder, sharper pitch with later break. While the curveball was more inconsistent than the slider, there were times when both pitches flashed - the slider future plus and curve future above average. 

Then, there was the splitter. Splitters are fun. Well, unless you’re hitting. Ellwanger threw his with a very low spin rate that combined with fastball conviction/arm speed to create a legitimate weapon at 84-88 MPH that should help him neutralize lefties at the next level. He didn’t throw the pitch a ton, but when he did, it often showed the shape desired in the pitch and I’m very comfortable projecting it as a definite piece of his arsenal moving forward. If you’re reading this and saying, “well, that sounds like a strong future four-pitch arsenal with a big fastball, feel for spin… that sounds like a really good prospect.”

You’re right. If I graded Ellwanger only on this outing alone, he’d be the No. 3 prospect in Texas and you might ask yourself if a debate could be made between Ellwanger and Travis Sykora (more on him soon). He was that good and keep in mind Lake Creek is one of the best lineups in Texas. Once everything clicked in the middle innings, he was nearly unhittable with distinct breakers, splitter and some signs of fastball command up in the zone for whiffs. Did I see Ellwanger on a career-best night? Probably. And I don’t want that to sound in any way negative, but these are the types of questions professional evaluators are faced with - is this a sign of things to come or was this a rare night when it all clicked and the prospect is more like the other outings? Those other outings have been really good, but not quite as good as the night I saw him because on that night he looked like a $2 million arm. 

I’m not sure. I lean towards this: once you see it, you know it’s in there. And Ellwanger is a good, three-sport athlete who is 6-5 with physical projection remaining and I think he could leverage his physical gifts more in his delivery moving forward, which should unlock more command and control; while he was a consistent presence on the summer circuit, I still think he’s still a bit raw as a pitcher because he doesn’t give off the appearance he’s spent years in a lab and has maximized everything he has. After foot plant, his foot barely moves, a good sign of athleticism and strength. He has good shoulder posture prior to delivering the baseball with a eyes on the target, notable hip-to-shoulder separation and I think over time he can quiet his head whack some. These are all reasons to be excited about his long-term potential because while I might have seen him as good as he's ever been, he doesn't feel like close to a finished prospect without more levels to reach.

Plus, I really like the competitiveness. He has a quiet fire burning inside of him; he isn’t a very outwardly emotional, roar and scream kind of guy. But make no mistake, he doesn’t just want to beat you on the mound; he wants to impose his will and is unafraid to challenge hitters with heat late in fastball counts. Recently, he got a Twitter account - at least I think that was him - for the first time and I think he’s the best bet in Texas to have the lowest screen time on an iPhone. He definitely knows how to compete, though. It seemingly comes natural to him. 

Now, scouts and crosscheckers will be faced with a question: how signable is Ellwanger, a DBU signee, and just how good is he? It’s one thing to emerge in February like Cole Phillips did last year. It’s another to have the type of start that makes everyone’s head spin the first week of April when so much of the draft evaluation and background work is done and suddenly submitting a report with a second-round or better grade on a prospect raises eyebrows and results in immediate phone calls followed with immediate questions. 

The Rest of Magnolia West versus Lake Creek… 

So, I got carried away with the Ellwanger report. Hey, it’s not often you show up and see something that unexpectedly blows your baseball mind. Ellwanger wasn’t the only reason about 20 or so scouts were at Magnolia West that night. Texas A&M signee and right-hander Weston Moss was on the mound for Lake Creek and remains an intriguing MLB Draft prospect. Moss wasn’t as sharp as he’d prefer against a really good Magnolia West lineup. He threw 3.0 innings and gave up two runs on six hits, two walks and struck out two. 

But he showed the best changeup I’ve seen in person this season, and there isn’t a close second. Moss didn’t start mixing it in significantly until his outing was nearly done and it angrily tumbled towards the plate like a ghost stealing the souls of hitters. Visually, the pitch reminded me some of Aaron Nola’s changeup; it was 80-83 MPH with very low spin rate and had a splitter-life shape and late dive as it approached the plate, baffling both lefties and righties; it’s very much a legit swing-and-miss offering versus lefties and righties. Although I saw very few of them, I saw enough to believe it’s at least a future 60-grade pitch and maybe even a 70. 


As for the rest of the repertoire, Moss touched 93 MPH with his fastball and sat 88-92 MPH. At times, it had some angle down in the zone and the command and control were both in-and-out, unsurprisingly for a guy who hasn’t thrown many innings since Tommy John surgery. When Moss could get to his curveball, it flashed as a power breaker at 76-78 MPH. I do wonder in the future if either a pro team or Texas A&M will move him to a slider with his arm action and it might play better off the changeup, which will more often have arm side tumble. 

As Moss continues to get reps post-surgery, repeating his arm action in the back to consistently get to his breaking ball and unlock more control and command with the fastball will be key developmental points. With a loose frame and loose, quick arm, Moss has a lot of ingredients to really take off in the future. 

Both lineups published lineups filled with talent and college commitments, but hitting against Ellwanger, Moss and Lake Creek right-hander and Galveston College signee Jace Newkirk, who pounded the zone with a heater up to 85 MPH and racked up whiffs with a plus slider at 77-78 MPH, isn’t easy. However, one hitter stood out above the rests: Magnolia West’s Caldwell McFaddin. 


An uncommitted 2025 prospect who manned hot corner with a big arm, McFaddin smacked two very loud hits and timed good fastballs with quick hands. He’s an advanced hitter that recognized pitches early, was comfortable hitting with two strikes and used the entire field while also possessing the type of swing and power that will result in pull side homers until he grows into more. He also ran 4.37 seconds down the line and showed some athleticism. McFaddin looked like the total package as a prospect who is a good bet to hit for average, future power, get on base and be able to stick at third base.

Seniors Wade Nobles, who was one of the best tight ends in the state this past season, and Hayden Carpenter add impressive depth to the Magnolia West lineup. Junior shortstop Dawson Park, a Texas State commitment, put the ball in play with competitive at-bats without anything to show for it. Hitting leadoff for this talented lineup is a loud statement. Speaking of loud statements, sophomore Cody Palacios, who played center field and hit second, smacked a very hard double down the left field line with a promising, athletic swing and flew around the bases with some speed and quick-twitch actions. He’s going to be a definite name to follow in 2025. 


It was a quiet night for second baseman Trenton Buckley, a Magnolia West junior, but his all-around tools flashed. An intriguing two-way prospect with one of the strongest arms in the area, Buckley is likely one of the top uncommitted 2024 prospects in Texas. And shout out to Wharton College signee and Magnolia West catcher Caylon Dygert. It says a lot about his ability behind the dish he handled Ellwanger’s big stuff all game long in a way that was hardly noticeable, which is a good thing. 

For Lake Creek, I was reminded why I liked Blake Brown so much in the summer. The future Sam Houston State infielder did commit one error on a bad hop, but I still really liked his actions and long-term upside with the glove; he’s a twitchy, good athlete with a baseball clock that works quicker than most of his peers with quick transfers at shortstop. He’s a good bet to hit at the next level with bat-to-ball skill and gap-to-gap power. Gamer with skill and tools. Brown had one of the few hits off Ellwanger when he smoked a line drive into right-center. 


Arkansas commitment Sam Lee, a really impressive athlete, competed very well in the batter’s box, spoiling touch pitches and putting together lengthy battles against Ellwanger. He didn’t have anything to show for it, but I left impressed with the future bat-to-ball ability and his speed/athleticism should give him a good chance to stick in center field. Sharing the outfield with Lee was uncommitted senior James Kennedy, who took some good swings and made hard contact. He uses a short swing with bat speed from the right side and has twitchy, athletic actions with a compact frame and is looking for an opportunity to continue playing. 

Zane Adams showed he’s the best left-handed pitching prospect in Texas… 

Days before seeing the Ellwanger show at Magnolia West I made the trip to Porter High School to see Alabama signee and top left-handed pitching prospect, Zane Adams. Adams delivered a performance that solidified his status as the top left-handed pitching prospect in the state and a legitimate candidate to be selected early in the MLB Draft. 

Against an overmatched Huntsville lineup, Adams racked up whiffs with his fastball (87-90 MPH) and curveball (73-75 MPH) from the opening batter until his final pitch. He punched out 13 batters in 5.0 shutout innings and gave up just two hits with no walks. As impressive as all the whiffs were, I appreciated his strike-throwing and pitchability better. Adams fired strikes consistently with all three of his offerings and often placed his fastball at the knees of hitters with ease. 


He had excellent feel for his curveball, utilizing the pitch early in fastball counts for a strike and getting hitters to swing over the top of it as it darted towards the dirt in strikeout counts. My educated guess is its spin rate might not make Trackman excel sheets sound alarm bells, but the shape, bite and control/command of the pitch make it the best curveball I’ve seen this season, right up there with Rockwall-Heath’s Landry Powell. It’s a true weapon he has advanced feel for. 

I’ve seen Adams up to 94 MPH in the past and I have no doubt he’ll sit comfortably in the low 90s in the future. The heater occasionally arrived at home plate with some natural, arm side run. As for the changeup (76-77 MPH), it was good, too. Although he didn’t need to use it to continue dominating, the lefty began mixing in the pitch before the run-rule shutout concluded and I, along with about 15 scouts, appreciated getting another look at the pitch. Thrown with fastball conviction, Adams’ changeup tracked a similar path towards home plate, often looking like it would arrive at the knees to his arm side before the late fade and velocity change came into play near the hitting zone. 

On this night, it looked like Adams had the makings of at least three future above-average or better offerings and very promising strike-throwing characteristics with quality mound makeup and competitiveness. If that sounds like I’m describing a day one (first two rounds) MLB Draft prospect, it’s because I am. 

Teammates Josh Evans-Pickens and Payton Evans-Pickens also caught my attention. The former is an athletic, strong center fielder who will play running back at Harding University while the latter is a junior who is also a standout football player and packs impressive pop from the right side. Payton Evans-Pickens recognized spin well, hit leadoff, and just missed hitting two homers. Intriguing athlete and hitting prospect. Uncommitted senior catcher Victor Fortuna showed noteworthy arm strength behind the plate when he caught a runner stealing, crushed a deep fly out to center field and has physical projection remaining. He appeared talented and skilled enough to continue playing at the next level. 

It was a quiet night for Huntsville, but leadoff hitter an uncommitted senior Cooper Molnes began the game with a hard single back up the middle off Adams. He timed good fastballs well and was the only hitter who looked comfortable competing in the batter’s box against an elite high school arm. Molnes was tall - probably around 6-3 - with promising actions on the basepaths and in the outfield; with his talent and projection, he should get a chance to continue playing. 

Also, 2025 prospect Holden Langley will be one to track. With a loose, very projectable frame, Langley played shortstop cleanly and confidently with the look of a young player who has a chance to stick there long-term. 

Travis Sykora Shows Ability to Work Deep into Game, Handle Adversity

Since we’ve opened this already lengthy report by including three 2023 MLB Draft pitching prospects, let’s keep the train rolling with the top right-hander in the state. In the past, we’ve discussed Travis Sykora’s dedication to his craft off the field and the plan to slowly build up to throw deeper in games when it matters most. After throwing 6.0 impressive innings his previous start, I saw his most recent outing Tuesday night at Vista Ridge. The Texas signee and likely MLB Draft selection threw 5.0 innings and gave up two runs on two hits, two walks and struck out eight; he gave up one hit on a bunt and one walk came during a heavy downpour. It was fitting he was on the mound to clinch Round Rock’s undefeated district season and district title.

Once Sykora settled in after an uncharacteristically shaky start with his control, which wasn’t helped by infield defense including his own, he was, as usual, extremely difficult to hit. The 6-6 righty fired his fastball up to 98 MPH and sat 93-97 MPH unless he was pitching in very heavy rain when he traded command for velocity. I charted six fastball whiffs - give or take one because once the rain started aggressively falling the radar gun, notetaking and videoing became tough to juggle - and the control of the pitch was strong after the first inning with some glove side execution. 


In terms of whiffs, the slider was again the standout offering. At 81-85 MPH, Sykora threw it for a strike early in counts and buried it later in counts with sharp dive away from right-handed hitters. The big-time prospect also showed a splitter a handful of times, including a first pitch to a right-hander for a strike; it was 83-85 MPH with spin characteristics like a splitter but the drop/depth of a changeup. Right now against high school hitters, Sykora doesn’t really need the third pitch, but the more I see him, the more it’s clear he can throw that pitch for a strike and is comfortable using it against both right-handers and left-handers. There is a purpose to everything Sykora does on the mound and starting Vista Ridge’s three-hole hitter with a right-on-right splitter after punching him out with three-straight sliders wasn’t just because it was what the catcher put down; he enjoys the thinking part of being a pitcher. 

The rain forced Sykora into a jam and I was encouraged to see him remain on the mound after a short delay and get a big strikeout with a fastball to leave a couple runners on base. Vista Ridge forced Sykora off the mound some with its bunting game, but he showed his athleticism and ability to repeat by continuing to work quickly and fire strikes; a typical 6-6 righty might be huffing-and-puffing after being forced to field his position some, but Sykora was his usual self and barely broke a sweat as he continued to rock-and-fire. 

This was my second time to see Round Rock recently, and I firmly believe it is a state title contender. Cade Waibel, a McClennan signee, ran into some trouble in the seventh inning against Vista Ridge, but preserved the win with a fastball up to 91 MPH and a sweeping slider at 72-74 MPH. Tanner Jackson sat 87-89 MPH with his fastball when I saw him start against McNeil and his curveball flashed as a future plus pitch capable of getting whiffs against righties and lefties. And the list of arms goes deeper for Round Rock. 


DBU 2024 commitment Hudson Ellis made one of my favorite defensive plays of the year to help Waibel and his team close out a perfect district season. With his team clinging to a 6-4 lead and a runner on third with one out, Ellis charged and fielded a slow roller hit by Alex Berndlmaier, who is one of the fastest players in Austin and ran 4.19 seconds down the line. Ellis calmly fielded the ball on the move after it rolled through the rain-soaked grass, made a quick transfer, and fired a perfect throw on the move to record the out like he’d done it a million times before. Against McNeil just over a week prior, I watched Ellis blast a homer off talented lefty James Morio, one of the area’s top pitchers. Skilled ballplayer who can really defend. 

By the way, colleges are missing out on Berndlmaier. He’s a four-year starter at Vista Ridge, a 4.0-4.2 runner down the line from the right side, a solid center fielder and he hardly ever whiffs when I see him, which included some very competitive at-bats versus Sykora. More on Vista Ridge in a bit… 

Round Rock isn’t just a good pitching staff with the best defensive shortstop in the area. The Dragons have a good blend of physicality/punch in the lineup with athletic, fast players that make an impact on defense and can force defenses to make tough plays against their speed. Galveston signee and left-handed hitter Rhenn Andrewartha packed a productive punch from the cleanup spot Tuesday night and swings with controlled violence. 


Cade Algaier is an athletic two-way player who is very competitive with plus wheels. He’s heading to Blinn. Cole Cravens is a talented catcher who can impact the baseball. Connor DiGesulado is an uncommitted 2024 left-handed hitting outfielder who is athletic and can run with bat-to-ball skill. Nick Dunch might have the highest upside of all of them. I had him down the line on a bunt at 3.70 from the right side and have seen 4.1s on regular swings. He is going to be a physical outfielder who currently plays center now and he blasted a deep homer against McNeil. Recently, Christopher Alsobrooks joined the team from JV and I’m in on him as a future impact power hitter from the right side. 

As for Vista Ridge, the Rangers will be a tough out in the playoffs. We’ve covered pitchers Hank Howard and Zachary Fetchel before and Jake Wagoner (Seattle signee) always delivers as one of the best catch-and-throw prospects in the area. Against Sykora, Grayson signee and right-handed hitting infielder Jackson Harrel hammered a RBI triple to right field, showing the bat speed and hand quickness to time elite velocity. 

Sophomore Ethan Sanders started against Round Rock, as the coaching staff wisely played the playoff matchups and held Howard for Friday’s start with Fetchel available in the bullpen, and threw his fastball 83-86 MPH, topping 87 MPH with a breaking ball that took on a better slider shape late and a changeup with potential. His control was shaky early, but settled in later. I like the impressive, multi-sport athlete more as a shortstop long-term, but I bet he’s a key pitcher for Vista Ridge next season. Sophomore outfielder Kade Nathman beat out a bunt against Round Rock and ran down the line in 3.68 seconds from the right side. Each time I see sophomore right-handed hitter Grant Anderson, he makes playing third base look easy. He made two very impressive plays against Round Rock and he’s going to be a strong, physical presence sooner than later. 

QUICK HITTERS… 

- I also saw Vista Ridge against Westwood because I couldn’t resist Hank Howard versus Ridge Morgan 15 minutes from my house, and the two pitchers delivered. Once Howard found his groove, he was very tough to deal with. The big, physical right-hander gained velocity as the outing progressed and touched 93 MPH deep into his complete game victory. 


Interestingly, Howard accidentally threw a few fastballs late that had four-seam carry and more rise than his typical heater that arrived with slight arm side run. His defense did its best to make the game interesting, but it also came through with the bases loaded and two outs in the top of the seventh inning. 


My look at Morgan, Westwood’s ace, was my first since the summer. I was thoroughly impressed with the tall, wiry-strong righty’s ability to pitch. He sank heavy fastballs (85-88 MPH) in on the hands of right-handed hitters and would have broken multiple wood bats. But he has more arm strength than that. Late in the game, he threw a couple of four-seam fastballs with carry that touched 91 MPH. 


Morgan featured two different breaking balls with success - a harder slider with more horizontal break at 76-79 MPH and a slower curveball with two-plane but more vertical break at 70-74 MPH. He even tried to use backfoot sliders versus lefties and flashed a good changeup to those hitters as well along with a couple versus righties. He featured a true four-pitch arsenal and efficiently fired 6.0 innings while giving up just one earned run on five hits, two walks and he struck out eight. 

- Round Rock got the best of Trinity signee James Morio, but I remain firmly convinced the McNeil ace will enjoy a very successful college career, especially as a college program taps into his athleticism more and he adds strength to his frame. He touched 88 MPH with a fastball that had the ideal characteristics to have good shape moving forward; his breaking ball could be a bit big and soft at times, but it also created some whiffs; I really like the upside of his changeup long-term. 


Keep an eye on 2025 McNeil shortstop Joseph Sandusky. Against Tanner Jackson, he made hard contact against an 88 MPH fastball and also kept his hands back in the next at-bat to smack a hard single off the second baseman’s glove. The way his hands worked with good bat speed made me an immediate believer in his long-term hitting upside. 

- Anderson right-handed pitcher Jake Melvin recently returned to the mound for the Trojans and I made the trip to Alamo Heights to see him throw 2.0 innings. It’s been a long, winding and probably frustrating road for Melvin who hasn’t been on the mound much the last two seasons and summers as he’s dealt with various injuries. Recently, one of his first appearances came at Lake Travis when he struck out seven straight batters. I didn’t see that same pitcher at Alamo Heights but did see flashes of potential. 


Melvin touched 94 MPH once and mostly sat 89-92 MPH during his two lengthy innings. His control with his fastball was in-and-out while the big, 70-72 MPH curveball with some tilt couldn’t find the strike zone consistently. Melvin also showed an 80-82 MPH changeup to left-handers that he's still finding the feel for but projects as an average offering in the future. Understandably, he appeared rusty and as his second inning became very extended, he began to increase his effort and hunt for more velocity as he tired. I have no doubt the pitcher I saw isn’t the pitcher Melvin will be in the future. 

He possesses plenty of upside. He’s going to throw really hard in the future. Really hard. He rotates his shoulder well and has a lot of “layback” present before he delivers the baseball. He’s probably around 6-4 with notable physical projection remaining. I saw a lot of traits in his delivery that should improve with reps and also could be tweaked to unlock better strike-throwing and more velocity. 

Long-term, I think he ends up as a very hard-throwing reliever in a D1 program, but it would be silly not to stretch him out initially as he continues to build up from so much time away from the mound. Melvin recently announced a decommitment from DBU and is already attracting significant interest from a wide range of programs. 


Anderson sophomore sensation Ed Small is the real deal. A physical athlete who can fly around the bases or center field, Small opened the game by hammering a double to left field. He didn’t see a lot of strikes after that at-bat and refused to chase. Any discussion about top 2025 outfielders in Texas should include Small. 

At this point of the year, I’m already very familiar with Alamo Heights. Incarnate Word 2024 commitment Bruno Robles took the best swings of the game, hitting a towering fly out to right field with a seven-second hang time before mashing a run-scoring double into the left-center gap. His path and approach create lift and extra-base damage. On the mound in what looked like an inning just get stay fresh and get some work in, Robles sat 85-88 MPH with his fastball, which played up and created whiffs. 


I continue to be baffled why shortstop Jackson Duffin hasn’t found a home to keep playing. For like the fifth-straight time I’ve seen him, Duffin easily made all the plays at shortstop, didn’t whiff in the batter’s box and made hard contact multiple times. A 4.2 runner down the line with notable baseball athleticism, Duffin hits with a contact over impact approach, but should get on base in the future at a solid clip. He plays the game with a good IQ and everything comes easy to him. Classmate and teammate Harrison Sobey is a very physical, bat-first first baseman who continues to mash the baseball this year. He hammered a rocket into the left-center gap off Melvin that showed an ability to time a good fastball. 

Up next: notes on Lake Travis, Rouse, Liberty Hill, San Antonio Johnson, Brandeis, Westlake and Bowie as the regular season winds down and playoffs in Texas are set to begin. 

Dustin McComas
Senior Editor