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Where MLB scouts, college coaches, and top high school prospects meet.
We’re ready to unveil the first Five Tool 55 for the class of 2024 in Texas. And I can confidently say this list was the most difficult I've ever put together. I’ll explain. But first a reminder that those following our rankings have read before:
I find it extremely important to offer at least some transparency and explanation behind the rankings and the process, a process that basically takes a little over a month not including all the games seen by Five Tool. Why does it take so long? In addition to going back through game notes and Five Tool statistics, we - mostly Drew Bishop and myself with valuable input from other Five Tool members - watch a ton of film and communicate with coaches, college sources and professional scouts. As best we can, we try to blend the current player with the present and future tools, long-term outlook and always consider player performance.
Since this is the first published list for the 2024 class, we end up filing notes and evaluating close to 300 prospects to consider. And here’s the crazy thing: the state of Texas is so big we’ll undoubtedly miss very talented players for a multitude of reasons. After all, these players haven’t even played their junior seasons in high school yet. Want a good example?
Pearland left-handed pitcher Ryler Smart, who checks in at No. 7 on the list, didn’t pitch for his varsity last season and then exploded onto the scene this summer with a big uptick in stuff, physical outlook and performance. There is a Five Tool 55 player on the list most colleges never heard of. He showed up to a big-time D1 program for a camp, put on a show and committed soon after. There is an infielder on the list I saw by accident during the high school season because the stud senior, a 2022 Five Tool 55 member, who played ahead of him got hurt at the game I was at.
So while we watch an immense amount of high school and summer baseball and talk to coaches and scouts at all levels, we’re going to whiff in some places because it’s simply impossible not to. And that’s exciting. There will be under-the-radar names who become major dudes during the upcoming high school season or summer. For every Jack Frankel who is easily identifiable at a young age as an elite talent, there’s someone like 2023 Hebron outfielder Aden Howard, a player we didn’t know much about until his junior season in high school. He had a great junior season, an excellent summer, earned a spot on the Texas Rangers Area Code roster and is now No. 6 in the updated 2023 Five Tool 55.
THE DEBUT OF THE TEXAS 2024 FIVE TOOL 55
Speaking of Frankel, he’s part of the top tier, a tier that made this list the most difficult to put together. Sure, part of that is separating the talent but the real difficulty was the result of injuries. After excellent high school seasons, right-handed pitchers Casan Evans (St. Pius X) and Aiden Sims (Forney) both missed Area Code following injury scares. Fortunately, neither injury was deemed serious and simply required rest. When Frankel has been on the mound, he’s been sensational and flashed the best pure stuff in the state with advanced knowledge of how to use it. But he hasn’t been on the mound much.
Austin Westlake shortstop Theo Gillen missed almost his entire high school season, all of the summer season and last we checked was working his way back to being fully cleared late this fall from a major shoulder injury. Where Gillen ends up defensively at the next level remains a question, but, again, we’re discussing a prospect heading into his junior season. I’ve seen only a handful of live at-bats and can see why professional evaluators were already buzzing about a 2024 prospect during the summer of 2021. His left-handed swing is fluid, athletic, quick and he has a natural ability for adjusting his swing. Oh, he can really run, too.
For those players, we’re placing a lot of faith in tools/stuff and have time - two more high school seasons - on our side. At least in the case of Sims and Evans, we’ve seen both when they were at their absolute best during the high school season and saw both throw complete game gems. Evans, a good athlete, was up to 94 MPH with advanced pitchability, a true four-pitch mix, competitiveness and flashes of promising command. Still uncommitted, I’ve seen Evans, who debuts at No. 1, get a swing-and-miss with a four-seamer, sinker, curve, slider and changeup.
Don’t let the long hair and comparisons to Mitch from Dazed and Confused fool you because Sims is a baby-faced assassin. A two-way talent who is destined to find his value on the mound, Sims has one of the quickest arms in the state and excellent feel for spinning two breaking balls along with a changeup that steals the soul of overmatched left-handed hitters.
As for Cade Arrambide (Tomball), I think a good case could be made he’s the No. 1 prospect in the state. For now, he’s No. 2 after an extremely impressive performance at Area Code. The LSU commitment’s raw power has long been established as some of the best in his class and he showed it at San Diego when he smoked a homer so hard it knocked off a tree branch beyond the left field fence. However, I saw a much improved hitter who actually hit and didn’t just sell out for power, feast on mistakes or sit on fastballs in dead-red counts. He has a chance to stick at catcher, which is aided by a very strong arm.
Elkins outfielder and Houston commitment Braylon Payne at No. 6 might surprise some, but the more I saw Payne, the more it became obvious he’s extremely good. A Five Tool All-Summer Team selection after he hit .488/.585/.814 with just three strikeouts in 53 plate appearances, Payne isn’t just a good, projectable athlete who plays baseball well. This summer, he showed improved skill and was one of the top performers in Texas and perhaps the nation. The exciting part about Payne is he’s gotten so much better so quickly and there is a lot of room for growth, especially defensively. But the bat and the wheels - 11.1 seconds on a triple - were as good as it gets this summer. There are some whispers around the Texas Twelve program he could be one of the best they've ever had, which is saying something.
The aforementioned Smart didn’t just impress with his stuff and pitchability this summer. His competitiveness earned outstanding reviews. Wyatt Sanford has an exciting blend of tools, athleticism and has a chance to stick at shortstop. A tall, long, skinny lefty, Connor Williams’ fastball jumps on hitters and his low-spin changeup baffles them. Exciting potential on the mound.
If not for Smart, we’d be discussing Sawyer Strosnider as the biggest summer riser. A true two-way talent from Brock High School, Strosnider, who committed to TCU, shows true hitting feel from the left side with an athletic, quick swing that can cover the plate and use all fields. He plays faster than the stopwatch and the stopwatch already suggests he’s a plus runner. In the outfield, he has a twitchy bounce that showcases his plus athleticism. If he only pitched, he might still make the list. But, at least right now, he’s destined to be one of the best hitting prospects in the state. Heck, having him No. 10 might be underselling him.
South Grand Prairie infielder Austin Phillips was one of my favorite Area Code performers. In an environment that can overwhelm young players, Phillips thrived, showed one of the best bats on the Texas Rangers roster, carried himself with a slow heartbeat and calm instincts and played the game with infectious joy.
Keeping with the personal favorites theme, at No. 12 is Pearland do-it-all stud Isaiah Castaneda. The right-handed hitter batted .452/.549/.619 in Five Tool games this summer with more walks than strikeouts. An impressive athlete who runs well, Castaneda could end up at third base or the outfield, which is part of the excitement. He plays the game in such a natural way and looks like a young player who is still new to the game and has no idea how good he is. As his reps increase, he could make a big jump as his skill and polish improves. Oh, he’s also been up to 92 MPH on the mound. Currently uncommitted, Castaneda is good enough to play anywhere.
Another Five Tool All-Summer performer, Dallas Tigers and Boswell shortstop Sawyer Farr was a consistent standout each time we saw him. A talented switch-hitter, Farr has more juice from the right side but handles the bat more than fine from the left side, too. How much he fills out likely plays a role in where he ends up defensively, but his all-around skill and athleticism should make him a top prospect regardless. And he has some fun QB1 film as well.
I learned with the 2022 class that the Branch brothers can rake. In addition to performing extremely well with the bat this summer, I saw Kyle Branch run 4.2 down the line from the right side, make tough plays at second base and those who were around him this summer rave about his leadership. An OU commitment, Branch has the ingredients to be one of the best hitters and players in the state.
Once we moved past around No. 8 on the list, the next 10 or so players could have been arranged in numerous orders because the talent and tool are similar; there isn't going to be much separation this early in careers. In terms of tools, it’s tough to top Mansfield’s David Hogg II, who played receiver this fall at Mansfield. A physical athlete, Hogg has a strong arm, intriguing power, good speed and a bat that performed well, especially at Team USA events. It was really tough to separate Hogg II and Flower Mound’s Sam Erickson, a Texas A&M commitment who moved from Wisconsin prior to last season. Both have very exciting tools. Both are physical and athletic. Both can hit the ball hard and far and run fast. The only difference is Erickson is an outfielder while Hogg is an infielder.
Klein Oak’s Matt Scott II blasted five homers during the Pudge Rodriguez World Classic and created a buzz among pro evaluators with his jaw-dropping batting practice display at Area Code. The OU commitment and right-handed hitter has as much potential offensively as anyone in the class and how much he’s able to consistently tap into his power and what kind of progress he makes defensively probably determines how many pro scouts he attracts to games this summer and his senior year. If you want a position player who could crack the top five before he graduates, Scott is right up there with Strosnider and the next guy on the list. Exciting potential.
It wouldn’t be fair to rate four players who have dealt with some injuries inside the top five and then penalize Argyle’s Park Prater, No. 18 on the list, for missing some time, too. In fact, of any player not ranked in the top 10, I think Prater, a DBU commitment, has the best chance to crack the top 10 in the future. He was MVP of his district at a loaded high school program where playing as a sophomore is a loud statement and although I currently like him more as a hitter, he’s been up to 92 MPH on the mound from the left side and has Friday night starter upside in college.
At around 6-3, Prater is an athletic long-strider with plenty of physical upside and his length doesn’t impact his swing negatively, a swing that’s a bit of a throwback look from the left side.
My first look at St. Thomas’ Donte Lewis came at Area Code and I left San Diego very impressed because he got better with each at-bat and inning. A very impressive athlete and competitor who has quite the highlight reel as a quarterback, Lewis made quality contact consistently, runs well and looked like a future middle of the diamond player.
Speaking of Area Code, I knew Brayden Bergman, No. 20 on the list, could pitch. He was named to the Five Tool All-Summer team after finishing our events with a 0.00 ERA across 19.0 IP with 29 strikeouts and just two walks. With a lively heater up to 93 MPH that beat hitters even in fastball counts, Bergman dominated the opposition including in his short appearance at Area Code.
But he also hit in San Diego, too. He’s a true two-way player that’s tapping into his power more often and is a former three-sport athlete - football, baseball and basketball. What impressed me the most about both Lewis and Bergman at Area Code was they never looked overwhelmed or out of their comfort zone; they both competed extremely well while having fun playing the game, which isn’t easy on that stage.
The same could be said about catchers AJ Depaolo (Prestonwood Christian Academy) and Nolan Traeger (Concordia Lutheran). Both worked behind the plate with infectious energy, competed well in the batter’s box and have a real chance to stick at catcher long-term. I’ve seen Depaolo as fast as 4.2 seconds down the line in the past. Besides Traeger’s impressive bat speed and strike zone awareness, it’s exciting to think about what he could become because he won’t turn 17 years old until next July. As the summer ended, it seemed like his bat was really starting to heat up.
Nathan Tobin has some of the best bat-to-ball ability in the class and ran down the line in 4.09 seconds at Area Code. A good athlete, Tobin, a Texas A&M commitment, is a strong bet to emerge as one of the top pure hitters in the class and as his defensive reps increase, his athleticism should stick out even more.
While I’m on the subject of defense, Texas Tech commitment and Little Elm outfielder Kendyl Johnson has a reputation as one of the best defensive center fielders in the state. He’s also a plus runner whose speed showed when he caught passes for Little Elm this season. With a quick, promising swing and feel from the left side, it’s easy to see why Texas Tech made a move to grab his commitment.
A couple of right-handed pitchers who really impressed at the Pudge Rodriguez World Classic check in at No. 24 and No. 25 on the list, respectively: Canyon Randall’s Andrew Ramos and Westwood’s Ridge Morgan. Both remain uncommitted but not for lack of suitors. And while both - Ramos in particular raked all summer with extra-base power - are legitimate hitters with some pop, their future is brightest on the mound. Against a loaded Texas Twelve Maroon squad, Ramos punched out 10 in 5.0 innings with a fastball up to 89 MPH, a sharp slider around 78 MPH that racked up swings and misses and a promising 81 MPH changeup that froze a lefty for a strikeout.
In 3.1 innings, Morgan punched out five and showcased a heavy fastball up to 90 MPH with hints of command to both sides; a hard, sharp slider up to 82 MPH; legitimate changeup feel and a curveball that flashed with true shape around 76 MPH and looked like a slurve other times. Tall with plenty of room still to fill out, Morgan has exciting upside.
Highland Park’s Jordan Stribling, a Texas commitment, was maybe the most difficult prospect to rank. The big, tall lefty’s outing at the Pudge Rodriguez World Classic encapsulated the tantalizing upside with the signs of youth and inconsistency. He struck out nine batters in 4.0 innings but also walked nine batters. His stuff - fastball up to 93 MPH with live, sharp breaking ball and enough changeup feel to project it as a usable third pitch - can be dominant and there’s plenty of room for it to improve. As he matures and grows into his 6-5 frame, the strike-throwing could improve and he could quickly emerge as one of the top lefties in the nation.
A couple more Area Code pitchers are just behind Stribling on the list at No. 28 and 30, respectively: Argyle’s Hudson Emeterio and Lake Ridge’s Matthew Millett. Emeterio, a Baylor commitment who is a physical linebacker on the football field, is a good athlete with a short arm action that creates some natural deception, an upper 80s fastball that will add more, a short, tight slider that will miss bats and a changeup that flashes with promise.
Millett throws a low 90s heater on a line that sizzles towards home plate and beats hitters routinely and his changeup could emerge as a real weapon. As he learns to more consistently get to and finish his breaking ball and grow into his length on the mound, he could be even tougher for hitters to deal with.
Unlike the pitchers above, Kade Irons is a lefty who is more of a strike-thrower and pitcher than a power arm. Don’t be fooled, though. Irons, a Houston commitment from Covenant Christian who debuts at No. 29 on the list, throws an easy heater up to 89 MPH from a low slot that plays up and will undoubtedly add velocity in the future. With a strong, sturdy lower half and a steady head, Irons can fire strikes with multiple pitches from an easy delivery. Additionally, he spins a pretty curveball with depth, has shown feel for a true slider and also showcases a usable changeup. Following an excellent appearance at the Five Tool and Texas Scouts Association event this September, Irons made his commitment a month later.
Rated at No. 43 on the list, I see a lot of similarities on the mound in Montgomery’s Bryce Navarre and Irons. Both are lefties with advanced feel for spin and Navarre, a Texas A&M commitment, has two breaking balls that can generate whiffs and also attacks hitters with a low-effort delivery with a promising changeup. And like Irons, the radar gun readings aren’t going to blow anyone away, but there’s a velocity jump coming for an athlete who can pitch. A two-way talent because of his talented work with the bat, Navarre looks like a future starting pitcher with a four-pitch mix…
To give your eyes and brain a break and prevent one piece of content from making War and Peace seem short, I’ve published PART II of our commentary discussing the debut of the Five Tool 55 for the 2024 class in Texas.
Dustin McComas
Senior Editor